In 2016, China's steel exports of one hundred million tons is a foregone conclusion. Huge number of export scale, attracted the world's major countries trade siege, offering a protectionist measures in succession, so China's steel exports fell 15.5% year-on-year in November, the steel bar exports fell by 41.7%, is expected to be slow. Lange steel Chen Kexin thinks, because even so, the three major factors of power, in 2017 China's steel exports still larger scale, reduced 80 million tons of crude steel output problem is not big, perhaps even maintain one hundred million tons. The three factors:
First of all, is the world's economic growth speed, the international demand for steel volumes increase. Lange steel Chen Kexin think, after the federal reserve to raise interest rates again, global extreme monetary easing will come to an end, but this does not affect the global economic recovery. Because the federal reserve to raise interest rates is built on the basis of economic growth prospects look good, and is the result. In addition, at the same time in the withdrawal of monetary easing, globally active fiscal policy is expected to pick up sticks to promote economic recovery, as a substitute and buffer, it is the world economic growth. So recently the world authorities have raised expectations over the next two years the world economy, including the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) to the 2017 global growth forecast to 3.3%. Global economic growth is the most important engine, the American economy (GDP) in 2016 third quarter growth of 2.9%, in two years. Now widely expected after the new President of the United States came to trump policy, on a large scale expand tax cuts and government spending, will stimulate the U.S. economy accelerates, it is thought the U.S. economic growth is likely to be close to 4% in 2017. Countries around the world in a positive fiscal policy to promote global economic recovery speed, will make the total demand of the international market expansion, the greater demand for cheap Chinese steel.
Followed by the fed to raise interest rates again and continue to raise interest rates expected, increasing the depreciation pressure, strengthening China's steel exports competitive advantage. Recently the federal reserve to raise interest rates again, and sent the market increased by frequency information. Lange steel Chen Kexin thinks, influenced by its expectations, the dollar index continued ascension, so as to increase the pressure of RMB devaluation. Is expected in 2017 years, there is still a devaluation of space, the yuan against the dollar is likely to breakdown the 7.0 mark. Has for some time that the depreciation of the occurrence and continue to happen, in the case of other conditions unchanged, strengthening China's steel exports competitive advantage, of course, to a large extent can hedge against other countries trade protectionism resistance.
The last is China's steel exports up steel prices will also cause the international market, to add power China's steel exports. Leading the world economic recovery in the United States, under the background of global steel demand growth, Lange steel Chen Kexin thinks, if cheap Chinese steel exports because tariffs and blocked, such as fewer exports of 40 million tons, will have two results: one is resources supply decreases, the tight supply and demand; Secondly, the high cost of resources to fill the gap. Either way as a result, steel prices will cause the international market, and is significantly higher. Nearly two months since the international market price increases, so a round steel, stimulation, including U.S. steel mills, iron and steel enterprises in the world, improve the ex-factory price of steel, China's steel exports decline and the increase in the price of steel exports, is undoubtedly an important factor. Citigroup said it once, the future of Europe and the United States for a month $50-80 tons of steel price may rise. Lange steel Chen Kexin think international market steel prices to rise further in the future, is bound to increase steel export earnings, the formation of China's steel export momentum.
It is important to note that if the New Year, China's steel exports fell rapidly really back to about 80 million tons, a drop of more than 2. Lange steel Chen Kexin argues that, in this case, even if domestic crude steel production, in 2017 China's crude steel apparent consumption level also soared, increase reach or even exceed 6%. In November 2016, China's crude steel apparent consumption grew by 9% year on year, compared with the same period last year growth of 3.4% (3.4%), reflects this trend.
, of course, because there is obviously unreasonable, Lange steel Chen Kexin think, so will not be able to see China's crude steel apparent consumption as the actual level of consumption, also can't on the basis of China's crude steel actual demand also strong growth conclusion, iron and steel enterprises also can not completely direct production accordingly.
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